Abstract


Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığı, Döviz Kuru, Enerji İthalatı, Enflasyon ve Büyüme İlişkisi: VAR Analizi

The aim of the study is to determine to what extent the exchange rate, energy imports, inflation and economic growth affect the current account deficit with by analyzing the relationship between current account deficit, exchange rate, energy imports and growth in the Turkish economy. VAR model is established that using data on variables of current deficit, real effective exchange rate, energy imports, inflation and gross domestic product covering the years 1990-2022. The Tado-Yamamoto and Granger causality analysis was applied In the established model.According to the Toda Yamamato causality test, It has been determined one-way causality from the inflation rate to the current deficit/GDP ratio, from the real effective exchange rate to the inflation rate and from the inflation rate to the GDP growth rate. According to Granger causality, it is observed that there is unidirectional causality from real effective exchange rate to inflation rate and from energy import/total energy use rate to inflation rate.



Keywords

Current Account Deficit, Exchange, Rate, Energy Import,Inflation, VAR Analysis


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